Business opportunities – As the realities of Brexit finally hit, will the purse strings tighten?
Total UK retail sales (including auto sales) for the full 2020 year will grow 1.2% to £487.30 billion ($649.66 billion), according to our estimates. That’s the slowest growth rate since 2015, when it was down by 0.2%.
Meanwhile, ecommerce—which makes up an increasing portion of UK retail sales—will grow 8.9% this year, reaching £114.26 billion ($152.33 billion).
Looking forward, industry experts from eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence believe Brexit’s effects will change how consumers shop—not only how much money they spend, but also where they spend it. Many determining factors will influence the UK retail market over time. Here’s what the experts say:
Monica Peart, Vice President of Forecasting, eMarketer
Brexit has had cooling effects on UK retail sales and, at other times, has spurred additional spending.
When first announced, the potential exit from the EU produced a wave of shoppers from other countries who took advantage of more favorable currency exchange rates—which certainly boosted retail sales growth. But as uncertainty wore on, domestic shoppers curbed spending outside of shopping holidays as they sought ever-deeper sales and discounts.